Turnovers, performing in the red zone and a little bit of luck. Swinney doesn’t think the Tigers are far off the beaten path of returning to elite status.
Austin Hannon
When a program with the recent history of Clemson goes 9-4, there are often plenty of people ready to claim that the program has 'fallen off' or 'isn't what it used to be.'
For the Tigers, it's more than that. For the last three seasons, something has been different. Some will jump to a decrease in talent level, but Clemson is still bringing in recruiting classes that are up to par with those of the past. Some will say it's all quarterback play, which isn't totally crazy. But it's also hard to expect that you're going to have a Trevor Lawrence or Deshaun Watsonin any given year. In fact, Kelly Bryant was nowhere near those two in terms of on-field production, but that didn't stop the Tigers from going 12-2 and earning the No. 1 seed in the CFP in 2017-18.
Leading into fall camp, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney said that the Tigers aren't far off from where they were. They're just doing something that they didn't do during the stretch of six straight appearances in the College Football Playoff — beating themselves.
"It's winning the close games. First of all, it's taking care of the ball," Swinney said. We were atrocious at that last year. So, we've gotta turn that around. And then, the last three years, we've won 30 games — and that's 94th percentile in college football. So if you made a 94 on your paper, that's an 'A,' that's good — you think that's good. That's more wins in the last three years than 126 of the 134 teams in college football. So, we've been good, but the reason we haven't been great, like we were '15 to '20, when we were making a 'Final Four' — it's not very much for us. It's not like we're 75th percentile. We've been 94 percentile the last three years, and last year is a microcosm of the past three years, and how close you are. You lose in double overtime, you lose in overtime, you lose on a one-play pick six in Raleigh. And I mean, you lose a game at Duke — we [had] 200-plus [rushing yards], 200-plus [passing yards] — we've never lost a game in 128 years at Clemson that way, ever. But we did. Well, we had about five turnovers, two of them [were on the goal line]. Against a good team, they take advantage of that and you get beat."
The Tigers have struggled to imitate the big-play ability of past teams in recent years, as well. Not just that, but last year, the red zone was a big problem on both sides of the ball.
"When we've been great, we have a plan to win and we have been great at executing that," Swinney said. "In particular, big-play margin — having more big plays than the opponent. And then it's been red-zone scoring, we were not good last year, on either side. Defensively, we were eighth in the country, but when people got to the red zone, they scored touchdowns. And then, we're 15th in the country in first downs, we got there a lot, but we didn't finish. Blocked kicks, missed kicks, turnovers — you name it."
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During the program's elite years, it seemed like Clemson won every close game. Whether it was holding off Lamar Jackson late, or stuffing Notre Dameat the goal linein the pouring rain, the Tigers nearly always got it done. Recently, the script has flipped — Clemson hasn't won the close ones.
"We haven't won the close games. You go back to '21, we lose on one play to Georgia. One play, 10-3, pick six, neither offense scored a point. One play. You go lose in double overtime on the road, one play. And so you're talking about a few plays, and the narrative is different. But that's how close it is. When you're trying to make a [CFP], it's a few plays, and when we've been great, we've made those few plays, we won those close games."
As the Tigers enter fall camp on Thursday, there will be an emphasis on the little things. If Clemson can correct those, everything is still in front of the Tigers in 2024-25.
"Some of it's just good luck. Sometimes, things just bounce your way. And we've had a lot of good fortune over the years," Swinney said. "It'd be different if you were 9-4 and getting your teeth kicked in. [That's] not been the case. Even in '22, we won this league, two years ago. We've won the league seven out of nine years. So to get back, we need to win the league. That's how close we are. But even that year, when we won the league two years ago, we're one point away from being in the playoff. Fourth quarter [against] South Carolina, we fumble the punt return, we fumble the kick return, lose two possessions with a lead, and you get beat by one point. Otherwise, you're in the playoff. So, those are disappointing things that you just have to coach through, recruit through and practice through, and that's what we're working on."
